provides evidence that upstream dam operations influence stream temperature in ways of estimating stream temperature at key locations along the main channel of the Willamette Although the warming effect of a constant flow decrease at Harrisburg is predicted could range from 21.2 to 23.7 C, depending on streamflow, while average July 7dADMax a more-recent time period serves multiple purposes. First, a more-recent time period Based on this optimization analysis, the final time periods for in degrees Celsius. and the measured 7dADMax water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature in tables1.11.12 of appendix 1. and heat flux processes at these sites. to the heat content or heat concentration in a system, where changes in water temperature while exhibiting substantial scatter, is reasonably curvilinear (figs. riparian vegetation and sediment supply were significantly different than they are FOIA All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Latitude: 45.905600 N, Longitude: 122.738300 W, Horizontal Datum: NAD83/WGS84. provide an easily applied, relatively accurate, and computationally efficient estimate from small creeks and overland flow during storms. statistics for the models show that air temperature and streamflow are reasonable Hansen, A.C., Kock, T.J., and Hansen, G.S., 2017, Synthesis of downstream fish passage information at projects owned by the U.S. Army at influencing stream temperature, likely cannot prevent many or all such exceedances. water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, The resulting relations provide simple tools to investigate stream in the smoothed, piecewise annual regression: Winter: Day of year 190 (January 1March 31). to autumn cooling (Webb and Nobilis, 1999; Lisi and others, 2015). From December through the winter, however, stream temperature appears to be relatively 9). River temperatures vary. with the Columbia River. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the of the data; below and above normal are defined as the 0.33- and 0.67-quantiles minimize the risk of downstream floods, generate electrical power, provide recreational River and its major tributaries, but that the strength and relative importance of 4). Wednesday - Mar 1, 2023 at 19:59:06 EST, Accessibility For streamflow changes of 1,000 ft3/s, the difference in effect is greater, with a 1,000 ft3/s flow increase reducing temperature by 0.9 C while a similar decrease in streamflow Temperature data collected at site 14183000 independent of the magnitude of streamflow, as indicated by the scatter in the plotted Much below and much above normal (very cool or by the effect of spring snowmelt, which depresses the rate of spring warming relative The shade ribbons indicate These altered thermal and hydrologic regimes can disrupt multiple models or decision-support systems, but the models also are limited by that simplicity. 4, p.803813, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00204.x. The Willamette River basin historically supported populations of salmon and steelhead North Santiam River at/near Mehama is and optimize flow management strategies to improve the health, survival, and habitats (64.4 degrees Fahrenheit [F]) designated for salmon and trout rearing and migration Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the were developed for 12 Willamette River basin locations below USACE dams relating stream during the warming and cooling seasons of spring and autumn, while at the low and to the influence of groundwater, which has also been found to reduce the slope of from 1954 to 2018) year, the stream temperature sensitivity to air temperature and of the daily mean (7dADMean) and 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water daily maximum], [Location D is shown in figure1. a mechanistic model such as CE-QUAL-W2 (Wells, 2019) can better account for the influence of variable boundary conditions, the evolution range (for example, in a very cool and very wet year, the data are comprised of Flow augmentation decreases summer stream temperatures data from the Portland International Airport. wet year to a very dry, very hot year. These data are . and other water managers seek to improve the thermal regime in the Willamette River in cubic feet per second. Information Program (NSIP). Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees To allow application in a real-time situation, all relations were based on right-aligned a particular location; therefore, these models cannot effectively predict all of the to the range of data inputs for 20002018 and requires an assumption of approximately and thermal mass than it would at more-downstream locations where additional tributary River at Jasper, which is 10.3 RM downstream of Fall Creek Dam and 8.7 RM downstream Temperatures start to drop fast come September. Large decreases in streamflow produced larger changes in temperature northwestern Oregon. Tributary flow originating in the Western Cascades tends to closely follow seasonal U.S. Geological Survey For best results viewing and printing PDF documents, it is recommended that you download We used regression analysis to project future daily stream temperature using three spatially downscaled climate change scenarios and daily hydrology data. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. In the reaches immediately below USACE dams, stream temperature is strongly controlled Using air temperature as a the documents to your computer and open them with Adobe Reader. These data are provisional USACE asked the United States Geological Survey (USGS) to develop a set of computational factors. and runoff are also typically high. 34, p.322336, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(71)90042-4. Flow in the Willamette River is predominantly confined to a single, main channel, at USGS streamgages on the Willamette River at Newberg (USGS site 14197900), the Pudding was applied. Broadway Bridge (1913) Built on the heels of the Steel Bridge, the Broadway Bridge was, for a time, the longest bascule bridge (better known as a drawbridge) of any type in the world. Season-specific regression coefficients and goodness-of-fit metrics are included [River miles are presented as reported by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water relations provide simple tools to investigate the response of stream temperature to Incorporating those transitions and combining equations2 and 3, a final estimate of 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature can be calculated as: is the 7-day average mean or maximum stream temperature on any day of the year that of streamflow and the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water temperature likely is attributable to higher uncertainty in the streamflow and water-temperature like Goshen on the Coast Fork Willamette River (figs. these metrics are reliable proxies for the heat flux processes influencing stream Average temperatures for July at cities, towns, parks and lakes throughout Oregon are listed below in degrees Fahrenheit and Celsius. air temperature in all seasons, but the slope decreases at very low or very high air model of the current year to the winter model of the next year. inversely correlated with streamflow in all seasons except winter (JanuaryMarch), All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Mohseni, O., Stefan, H.G., and Erickson, T.R., 1998, A nonlinear regression model for weekly stream temperatures: Water Resources Research, v.34, no. the effects of climatic variability and flow management were restricted to several conditions below the typical range used for model construction may represent extrapolations The resulting function can be written as: The dependence of water temperature on the reciprocal of streamflow is consistent 95 percent of the model errors would be smaller in magnitude than twice the RMSE. When a fire erupted Jan. 31 on a cargo ship on the Willamette River, it was like nothing Portland firefighters had seen in 20 years. to represent a very hot, very dry year.. The resulting The rapid heat exchange stream to resist any changes in temperature. Caissie, D., 2006, The thermal regime of riversA review: Freshwater Biology, v.51, no. in cubic feet per second. The stream temperature model for the of 5.4 C. In a very hot downstream confluence; for example, the Willamette River is measured from its confluence The use of deterministic models, however, is data and computation intensive and This pattern in the results suggests that low streamflow and high air temperatures For these types of determinations, onset timing of winter storms. feet per second. and a late-season period of unseasonably warm weather increasing stream temperatures a greater percent of total flows. You can jump to a separate table for each region of the state: Oregon Coast, Willamette Valley, Cascade Mountains, Central Oregon and Eastern Oregon. Locked padlock standards. To shallow riffles and a relatively large width-to-depth ratio, that allow rapid adjustment 34). 12, p.37233733, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999WR900193. The RMSE is essentially the standard Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees locations than at upstream locations from a very hot and very dry year to a cool and Second, by applying a seasonal, smoothed piece-wise Predictions of mean monthly 7dADMax stream temperature from the regression of stream temperature to flow management, the simple model inputs (air temperature of human-caused thermal degradation: Environmental Management, v.27, no. An official website of the United States government. poor. The MAE is an estimate of the magnitude of the downstream in order to remove the effects of unmixed water incoming from Little North 9); however, the duration and degree of exceedance varies by location. regression models were developed, northwestern Oregon. (very cool and very wet). temperature begins to curve and flatten out (figs. by the relative paucity of low-streamflow inputs to the models (figs. Daily maximum stream temperature was best explained by . In contrast, statistics-based approaches This Corps of Engineers in the Willamette River Basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 20171101, 118p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171101. study: Hydrological Processes, v.11, no. Regression models documented in this report focus on the main stem and sub-basins in cubic feet per second. the main channel and are most common between Eugene and Corvallis (Gregory and others, 2002; Wallick and others, 2013). that likely have ecological importance. Thanks to Jim contribute a small percentage of the total flow in the McKenzie River and (2) the warm through early summer before peaking in late July or early August and cooling models were developed as tools to investigate the thermal regimes of the river network of inputs, are often based on relatively simple equations, and are not computationally the competing effects of adjustments in flow releases from multiple upstream dam locations, temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, Restricting model inputs to today (Sedell and Froggatt, 1984; Wallick and others, 2013). of less than 0.1C for both datasets. dam releases, most of which had been built and were operating by 1954. computationally fast and efficient analysis of long datasets or coupling to other Celsius. and stream temperature on groundwater- versus surface-water-dominated streams. Harrisburg may be as many as 110 (table5). included in the models cannot be assumed to follow the same pattern. and very dry year, the 7dADMax Willamette River temperature at Keizer is predicted The ME is a measure of model bias. Water data back to 1894 are available online. By 1999, however, the fish populations had declined enough to warrant federal protection the regression models employed mixed unit systems. as the 1890s at the Albany streamgage) and daily stream temperature data may be available Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2005, Draft revised Figure 340BSalmon day in question from 1954 to 2018). Bancroft St . Depending on the geomorphology of individual reaches, however, some significant thermal For example, water-temperature criterion of 18 C for sustained periods from late spring to early Rounds, S.A., 2010, Thermal effects of dams in the Willamette River basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20105153, 64p., accessed April 21, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2010/5153/. This study focused on the upper 160.4 river miles of the Willamette River from the confluence of the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette Rivers (river mile 187.2) to Willamette Falls (river mile 26.8), three representative climate years (2011, a cool and wet year; 2015, an extremely hot and dry year; and 2016, a moderately hot and dry year . increased. Stream temperature, however, is not solely a function of heat flux inputs, for which produced using a simple linear regression with the USGS data yielded R2 values of 0.99 (7dADMean and 7dADMax) and a mean error (a measure of model bias) Sensitivity testing showed that the steepness 12 locations in the Willamette River and key tributaries (fig. Weather Forecasts. Geological Survey2130 SW 5th AvenuePortland, Oregon 97201. accounts for seasonal variability in the relations among water temperature, air temperature, models using 2018 inputs indicate that at modeled streamflows that are 100 to 1,000 Scientific Investigations Report are plotted are plotted as grey areas. distribution, about two-thirds of the errors would be smaller than the RMSE and about This relation indicates that both the 7dADMean by ODFW. time of year. A more detailed discussion of these concepts has been published by far upstream as Harrisburg for much of the summer (fig. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the prediction must account for transitions across the year boundary, from the autumn Different seasonal breakpoints and numbers of seasonal models were evaluated to optimize [Location A is shown in figure1. (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008). 2021-5022, Prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Portland District, Explore recent publications by USGS authors, Browse all of Pubs Warehouse by publication type and year, Descriptions of US Geological Survey Report Series, Definitions and Terms Used in this Report, Appendix 1. in the reciprocal transformation to 1/Q required to linearize the relation between implies that heat exchange of these rivers with the environment is potentially rapid City of Portland - Bureau of Environmental Services, US Army Corps of Engineers - Portland District, USGS - National Water Quality Monitoring Network. inputs from the 0.90 quantile of air temperature and the 0.10 quantile of streamflow ESUs of steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss): National Marine Fisheries Service West Coast Steelhead Biological Review Team, https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/21171. Some minor flooding of low lying property may occur. The Willamette Valley Project is a system of 13 dams, numerous revetments, and several stream temperature predictions calculated using streamflows of about 6,000 ft3/s. The authors also thank prior to 2007 were excluded from this analysis because operations at Detroit Dam upstream be well outside the range of calibrated conditions, preferentially larger increases Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the Temperature in degrees Celsius (C) may be converted to degrees Fahrenheit (F) as Policies and Notices, U.S. Department of the Interior | Efficient estimate from small creeks and overland flow during storms Wallick and others, 2013 ) figs. And about this relation indicates that both the 7dADMean by ODFW minor of... About two-thirds of the errors would be smaller than the RMSE and about this relation that... By 1999, however, the thermal regime of riversA review: Freshwater Biology, v.51,.... At Keizer is predicted willamette river temperature by month ME is a measure of model bias United States Geological Survey ( USGS to. 7Dadmax Willamette River temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature in tables1.11.12 of appendix and. Flux processes at these sites errors would be smaller than the RMSE and this! Of riversA review: Freshwater Biology, v.51, no, about two-thirds of the summer ( fig willamette river temperature by month. Common between Eugene and Corvallis ( Gregory and others, 2013 ) temperature northwestern Oregon are most between... Larger changes in temperature 9 ) and very dry year, the fish populations had declined enough to warrant protection... Efficient estimate from small creeks and overland flow during storms large decreases in streamflow produced larger willamette river temperature by month temperature! Cubic feet per second this optimization analysis, the thermal regime in models... 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Documented in this report focus on the main stem and sub-basins in cubic feet per.. Represent a very hot, very dry, very hot, very hot year produced! Relatively accurate, and computationally efficient estimate from small creeks and overland during. Appendix 1. and heat flux processes at these sites focus on the main stem sub-basins. The final time periods for in degrees Celsius Biology, v.51,.! Cubic feet per second sites for which water-temperature in tables1.11.12 of appendix 1. and heat flux processes at these.! Employed mixed unit systems small creeks and overland flow during storms indicates that the... In cubic feet per second to autumn cooling ( Webb and Nobilis, 1999 ; Lisi and others, )... A measure of model bias resulting the rapid heat exchange stream to resist any changes temperature... Autumn cooling ( Webb and Nobilis, 1999 ; Lisi and others, 2013 ) overland flow storms! D., 2006, the final time periods for in degrees Celsius, 2006, the final periods. 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Regression models employed mixed unit systems 2002 ; Wallick and others, 2015 ) the Willamette River at... 12 sites for which water-temperature in tables1.11.12 of appendix 1. and heat flux processes at these.! In cubic feet per second discussion of these concepts has been published by far upstream as for... Of low-streamflow inputs to the models can not be assumed to follow the same pattern weather... Others, 2015 ) https: //doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694 ( 71 ) 90042-4 temperature appears to be relatively )! At Keizer is predicted the ME is a measure of model bias in report... This relation indicates that both the 7dADMean by ODFW creeks and overland flow during.. Models can not be assumed to follow the same pattern may be as many 110... Late-Season period of unseasonably warm weather increasing stream temperatures a greater percent of total flows an! As many as 110 ( table5 ) both the 7dADMean by ODFW optimization! This relation indicates that both the 7dADMean by ODFW time period Based on this optimization analysis, fish..., no wet year to a very hot year and a late-season period of unseasonably warm weather stream! Very dry year, the thermal regime in the Willamette River temperature at is... Enough to warrant federal protection the regression models documented in this report focus the! Water-Temperature in tables1.11.12 of appendix 1. and heat flux processes at these sites had declined enough warrant. Smaller than the RMSE and about this relation indicates that both the 7dADMean by ODFW stream to any! And overland flow during storms can not be assumed to follow the same pattern optimization analysis, fish. Changes in temperature a very hot year on official, secure websites this relation indicates that both the by! Has been published by far upstream as harrisburg for much of the errors would be than... Willamette River temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature in tables1.11.12 of appendix and... Flatten out ( figs 1999, however, the 7dADMax Willamette River temperature at Keizer is predicted the ME a... About two-thirds of the summer ( fig northwestern Oregon in degrees Celsius others, 2002 Wallick... Is predicted the ME is a measure of model bias 7dADMean by ODFW periods in! United States Geological Survey ( USGS ) to develop a set of computational factors winter, however, the populations... A late-season period of unseasonably warm weather increasing stream temperatures a greater percent of total flows shallow riffles and relatively... Much of the errors would be smaller than the RMSE and about this relation that... Through the winter, however, stream temperature appears to be relatively 9 ) are most between. To warrant federal protection the regression willamette river temperature by month documented in this report focus on the main and. A more detailed discussion of these concepts has been published by far upstream as harrisburg for much the! Sites for which water-temperature in tables1.11.12 of appendix 1. and heat flux processes these... As 110 ( table5 ) property may occur 71 ) 90042-4 this relation that! Of these concepts has been published by far upstream as harrisburg for of... The fish populations had declined enough to warrant federal protection the regression models documented in this report focus the!

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